Each month since 1976, Blue Chip Economic Indicators has polled America's top business economists, collecting their forecasts of U.S. economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and a host of other critical indicators of future business activity. Our 30+ year track record of providing corporate and government decision-makers with our survey results has made Blue Chip Economic Indicators synonymous with the latest in expert opinion on the future performance of the American economy.
Each issue of this 16-page newsletter contains forecasts from 50-plus economists employed by some of America's largest and most respected manufacturers, banks, insurance companies, and brokerage firms.
Frequently cited by such national media outlets as Reuters, Wall Street Journal and Forbes, Blue Chip Economic Indicators provides forecasts for this year and next from each panel member, plus and average, or consensus, of their forecasts for each variable:
- Real GDP
- GDP price index
- Nominal GDP
- Consumer price index
- Industrial production
- Real disposable personal income
- Real personal consumption expenditures
- Real non-residential fixed investment
- Pre-tax corporate profits
- 3-mo. Treasury bill rate
- 10-yr. Treasury note yield
- Unemployment rate
- Total housing starts
- Auto and light truck sales
- Real Net exports
Each forecaster's prediction is published along with the average, or consensus forecast, for each variable. There are also averages of the 10 highest and 10 lowest forecasts for each variable; a median forecast to eliminate the effects of extreme forecasts on the consensus; the number of forecasts raised, lowered, or left unchanged from a month ago; and a diffusion index that indicates shifts in sentiment that sometimes occur prior to changes in the consensus forecast.
In addition to each month's survey results, you get:
- Commentary: Analysis by newsletter's staff of latest survey results and U.S. economic developments
- Graphs: Plot the latest historical data and consensus forecasts along with commentary and analysis on the changing outlook
- Long-Range Forecasts: In March and October, consensus, and averages of top 10 and bottom 10 forecasts of all regular variables for each of the next seven years, plus an average for the following 5-year period
- Viewpoints: A sampling of views on the economy excerpted from recent reports issued by Blue Chip panel members
- Special Questions: The results of special polls of the panel on questions of topical interest, i.e. monetary policy, fiscal policy, major influences on the outlook for growth, inflation, etc.
- Databank: Two years of historical data on 28 critical indicators of business activity. Calendar: A calendar of upcoming government and private sector data releases, Federal Reserve meetings, etc.
- Blue Chip Econometric Detail: A 4-page quarterly supplement that contains a limited National Income and Product Account breakdown based on the latest Blue Chip consensus forecast and a simulation of the U.S. econometric model of the U.S. economy developed by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
Archival issues – 1976+ (PDF) and 2000+ (Excel) - are also available. Call 1-800-638-8437 for more information
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Executive Editor of Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts
Carol Stone, CBE
Thomas J. Moeller
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