A repeal of premium tax credits and federal support for Medicaid expansion could result in 2.6 million people losing their jobs in 2019. According to a study completed by George Washington University and The Commonwealth Fund, the job losses and spending slump could result in a reduction in gross state product of about $1.5 trillion over five years, starting in 2019.
Job loss and economic distress. Tax credits and federal Medicaid funding total about $140 billion in federal funds. Rescinding these provisions effective January 1, 2019, could cause about 2.6 million jobs to quickly disappear. These losses would impact every state, but California, Florida, Texas, New York, and Illinois are among the 10 states expected to experience the biggest impact. One third of the 2.6 million jobs are expected to be in health care, and about 100,000 would be in the public sector.
The economic disruption caused by job losses could in turn reduce state and local tax revenue reductions by as much as $48 billion over a five year period. Simultaneously, states would be expected to provide health care services for those losing coverage, resulting in a decision to raise tax rates or cut other programs. States that have not chosen to expand their Medicaid programs would also experience job and economic loss, as these states have benefitted from economic growth generated from the funding provided to other states.
Companies: The Commonwealth Fund
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