The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) (P.L. 111-148) replacement plan of House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis) would lead to a projected 1 million more insured individuals in 2018 relative to the current baseline, according to an analysis by the Center for Health and Economy (H&E). The benefits of A Better Way to Fix Health Care are short-lived, however, with the number projected to be 4 million fewer than under the current law by 2026, with the decrease concentrated within the Medicaid population.
Findings. In addition the quick gain in insured individuals, H&E also found that the plan would decrease the premium cost of private health insurance coverage, with the largest impact on Silver, Gold, and catastrophic coverage plans. Furthermore, under the plan, H&E projected that medical productivity would increase by 7 percent by 2026 relative to the current baseline. The analysis also estimated that provider access would increase 4 percent in the same timeframe. Finally, H&E projected that the plan would decrease the federal deficit by $481 billion between 2017 and 2026.
A Better Way to Fix Health Care. House republicans unveiled A Better Way to Fix Health Care in June 2016. Its plan for replacing the ACA, A Better Way seeks to give consumers more choices and lower costs, coverage regardless of age, income, medical conditions, or circumstances, access to cutting-edge cures and treatments, and more protection for seniors through a stronger Medicare. To analyze the impact of the plan, H&E relied on certain assumptions regarding how the plan would accomplish these goals, as A Better Way does not include comprehensive details on all the provisions included.
H&E noted that, as with all policy projections, these estimates are associated with substantial uncertainty, as it is not likely that the policy environment will remain unchanged through 2026.
Companies: Center for Health and Economy
Legislation: FederalLegislation AccessNews EnrollmentNews GeneralNews NewsFeed
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